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After announcement of opening to direct talks with Kiev, Russian experts warn: no real breakthrough, just a political calculation to restrain the West and wear down Ukraine

The opening to dialogue with Ukraine announced by Vladimir Putin on Saturday night is being greeted with strong skepticism by Russian analysts. According to Elizaveta Osetinskaya and Tatyana Stanovaya, both experts in exile, the Kremlin’s move represents a diplomatic maneuver aimed more at buying time than ending the war.

Osetinskaya, in “The Bell” newsletter, calls the proposal “a trap for Ukraine and its European allies,” useful for showing goodwill but not openly accepting or rejecting the peace plan drawn up in Paris. The journalist considers it unlikely that Putin will participate in any negotiations in Istanbul, pointing out that the Kremlin has no intention of revising war aims or dealing with Volodymyr Zelensky.

Stanovaya, of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, also warns not to be under any illusions: Russia is not open to concessions and continues to aim at turning Ukraine into a satellite state. His reading is that Moscow is trying to avoid a disengagement of the United States, particularly President Donald Trump, whose role as mediator is crucial to the Kremlin.

Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov confirmed readiness to reopen negotiations on the basis of the 2022 format, but without going into details. Putin’s statements, considered in the context of previous “openings” such as the Easter truce and the Victory Day truce, thus appear more like tactical signals toward the West than real peace offers.

According to analysts, only deep internal changes in Moscow or Kiev, or a highly unlikely military scenario, could lead to a resolution of the conflict. Until then, Putin’s strategy will remain focused on weakening Ukraine and dividing the Western front.

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