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Toward a truce between Ukraine and Russia: a process with at least 5 obstacles
After talks in Saudi Arabia, Donald Trump announces progress in negotiations, but the path to lasting peace is still fraught with difficulties. Here are the key points of the agreements under discussion
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia finally seems to be moving toward a possible truce, but the path is fraught with difficulties. During a three-day meeting in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. delegation held separate talks with the respective sides, with Donald Trump announcing “great progress” in the diplomatic process. Despite this, the road to a final ceasefire still seems uncertain.
Black Sea truce and prisoner exchanges: the first steps
According to the White House, one of the most promising developments concerns the agreement to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea, which is crucial for commercial activities. The agreement includes a ban on the use of commercial vessels for military purposes and the elimination of navigation-related violence. Ukraine, for its part, has accepted U.S. support to facilitate the exchange of prisoners of war and the return of Ukrainian civilians and children forcibly transferred to Russia.
In parallel, the U.S. has promised to help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports by reducing the cost of marine insurance and improving access to ports. These developments, if confirmed, could represent the first concrete step toward detente between the two nations.
Energy infrastructure: a contentious issue
Another crucial aspect of the agreement concerns energy infrastructure. The United States, Russia, and Ukraine have agreed to take measures to prevent attacks against both nations’ energy facilities, but without providing a moratorium on civilian infrastructure. This implies that the remaining energy facilities may continue to come under attack.
Another step toward peace: intervention by third countries
The United States, Russia, and Ukraine have also welcomed the intervention of third countries to support the implementation of agreements on the Black Sea and energy infrastructure. This could prove crucial to ensure that the agreements are respected and to avoid new conflicts.
Reaffirming the will for lasting peace
The fifth point of the agreements is a reaffirmation of the will to achieve lasting peace. The United States reiterated that the goal remains to stop the killing on both sides of the conflict as a key step toward a peaceful solution. For this reason, Washington will continue to facilitate negotiations, while concrete progress is still being assessed.
The difficulties of implementation: the Russian position
Despite the announcements of progress, the Kremlin has already made it known that the agreement is not without conditions. In fact, Russia has presented its own interpretation of the agreements, tying the entry into force of the Black Sea truce to the removal of sanctions against the agricultural and banking sectors. Russia also set the duration of the truce related to energy infrastructure from March 18 for 30 days, with the intention of excluding liability for violations by both nations.
Ukrainian concerns: skepticism toward Putin
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he does not trust Moscow’s intentions. While agreeing to report any violations to the United States, Zelensky expressed concerns about Russia’s willingness to meet its commitments. The Ukrainian president warned that if air raids continue or if new military activities occur in the Black Sea, Ukraine will be ready to respond with specific measures against Moscow.
Zelensky also reiterated that the conflict will not only involve Russia, but also territorial cessions. According to U.S. President Trump, Ukraine will have to deal with the border issue and may be forced to recognize Crimea as Russian territory, accepting the loss of regions annexed by Putin. But Zelensky clarified that there have been no such agreements and stressed the sensitivity of the territorial issue.
The challenge of diplomacy: an uncertain future
Despite announced progress, the path to lasting peace still appears fraught with obstacles. While the United States seems optimistic, with Trump continuing to push for a negotiated settlement, Ukraine and Russia are still on divergent sides, and trust between the two sides remains fragile. The future of diplomacy will depend greatly on the next steps and the willingness of the nations involved to abide by the agreements, without provocations that could derail the peace process.
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