US-Russia negotiations in Riyadh: Putin optimistic, but path remains fragile

The first direct talks between Washington and Moscow on Ukraine raise hopes for concrete progress, but caution is in order

The negotiations between the US and Russia held in Riyadh, centred on the war in Ukraine, have raised high expectations, but according to Western analysts the diplomatic path remains uncertain. The first direct contacts between the two powers, the most relevant in the past three years, saw dialogue on concrete issues, but the path forward is still fragile. ‘Hopes are high, but Russia seems to underestimate how unstable the ground it is moving on is,’ experts from Moscow told Adnkronos.

Russian President Vladimir Putin described the talks as ‘a positive first step’, hinting that the Kremlin could expect major concessions. However, observers warn: Putin’s position is delicate and he must avoid rushing things too far, especially with Donald Trump, who is capable of blowing up the talks despite his ambitions to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

It is clear that Moscow will have to make concessions to move the process forward. ‘Putin will have to balance internal pressures, between hawks and doves, and make considered choices,’ experts say, highlighting the complexity of the negotiations.

In the meantime, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is under attack from both Moscow and Washington, but Russian observers claim that his position, for now, is not entirely compromised. The dialogue process is strongly supported by the Russian business community, which plays a crucial role in facilitating the negotiations. The presence of Kirill Dimitriev, head of the Russian Investment Fund and personally linked to Putin, in Riyadh is a clear sign of Russian economic interest in a resolution.

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