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The leader loyal to Putin withdraws from public life and focuses on his 17-year-old son, but other candidates emerge. Risks and uncertainties for the Kremlin in the Caucasus

For twenty years, Ramzan Kadyrov ruled Chechnya with an iron fist, repressing dissidents and rivals in exchange for absolute loyalty to the Kremlin. Now, at only 48 years of age, his health appears to be seriously compromised, opening a phase of profound political uncertainty for the Caucasus region and for Vladimir Putin, who has always considered Kadyrov a key player in maintaining stability in southern Russia.

The Chechen leader is increasingly absent from the public scene, and in recent months his appearances have been drastically reduced. Recent images show him looking tired, walking slowly, hooded, and uttering cryptic words about illness and death.

The designated heir is only 17 years old
The succession, however, is far from simple. Adam Kadyrov, Ramzan’s third son, is his father’s favourite. At only 17, he has already received two medals, one for “active military service”, and has been appointed secretary of the Chechen Security Council. Last weekend, he got married and received personal congratulations from Putin.

But his age is a formal obstacle: Russian law requires governors to be at least 30 years old. However, this restriction did not prevent Ramzan Kadyrov, supported by Putin, from consolidating his power well before officially obtaining the title.

Daudov and Alaudinov: the other strong names
Other figures close to the Kremlin could fill the power vacuum. Magomed Daudov, a long-time ally of Kadyrov and known for the infamous anti-gay purge of 2017, often presides over official events on behalf of the ailing leader.

Another possible successor is Apti Alaudinov, 51, a former regional security official who was fired in 2021 and recycled as a volunteer on the front lines in Ukraine, where he gained visibility as a patriotic television personality. Both enjoy strong ties to Moscow.

A fiefdom with broad autonomy
Under Kadyrov’s rule, Chechnya has enjoyed unique privileges: billions in subsidies, exemption from compulsory conscription, autonomy in religious affairs, and even a personal militia of 25,000 men. It has imposed local Islamic laws in violation of Russian law and carved out a space for autonomous foreign policy towards the Gulf countries.

In 2025, Moscow transferred over $700 million to the region, 15 times more than the funds allocated to the Russian region of Kursk. This balance based on the “money for stability” pact has worked so far, but now risks collapsing with Kadyrov’s demise.

A crucial pawn for Putin
According to Oleg Orlov of the Memorial organisation, “Kadyrov is one of the Kremlin’s parallel centres of power, on a par with the army or the intelligence services”. His control over Chechnya has been a model of decentralised authoritarian management in exchange for political loyalty.

But without him, it remains to be seen whether and how Putin will be able to maintain the same level of control in a region that has experienced two devastating wars in the past and remains riven by deep tensions.

Kadyrov’s illness, therefore, is not just a personal matter: it is a crucial test for the stability of Putin’s system in the Caucasus. And the outcome remains to be seen.

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