Brussels ready to hit 100 billion US goods if negotiations fail

EU Commission publishes list of US products at risk of duty. Involved are bourbon, whisky and agricultural products. Solution expected by July

The European Commission is preparing to respond decisively to the duties imposed by the United States, should the ongoing negotiations fail. Brussels has drawn up a list of US goods worth more than EUR 95 billion that could be subject to new tariffs. The list ranges from industrial to agricultural products and also includes American bourbon and whiskey, which were initially excluded thanks to pressure from Italy and France to avoid retaliation against European wines exported to the US.

In addition to these possible tariffs, the Commission launched a consultation on restrictions on EU exports to the US for steel scrap and chemicals, worth an additional EUR 4.4 billion. The total countermeasures would thus amount to around EUR 100 billion.

The context is marked by a temporary relaxation: on 9 April, Washington suspended the 20% EU tariff for 90 days, but maintained a 10% tariff. The Union responded on 14 April by suspending, also for 90 days, its planned countermeasures against the steel and aluminium duties imposed by the United States, originally introduced under the Trump presidency. The negotiations, led by Commissioner Maros Sefcovic, remain ongoing and will last until at least the second week of July.

Currently, 70 per cent of European exports to the US – some €379 billion – are affected by new or suspended duties. The Commission has meanwhile published the detailed list of US goods at risk of sanctions, keeping the dialogue open but ready to act.

Brussels also fears a side effect from US trade policies: that excess world production, particularly from China, will be diverted to the European market. The already fragile steel sector would risk further damage from a wave of cheap imports.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed the EU’s commitment to finding negotiated solutions: ‘We believe it is possible to reach consumer and business-friendly agreements on both sides of the Atlantic. But we are preparing for every scenario, and the consultation launched today will be crucial to guide us’.

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