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The rapprochement between Trump and Putin: a plan to end the war and new economic opportunities for the US

Donald Trump’s rapprochement with Vladimir Putin’s Russia, and the consequent change of course from the support offered by the Biden administration to Volodymyr Zelensky, reflects a design that aims to end the war in Ukraine, as promised in the election campaign, but which also concerns the economy as well as geopolitics. There are several elements that highlight the economic significance of the White House’s recent moves.

The end of the conflict represents an economic opportunity for the United States. On the one hand, it would mean reducing, if not cancelling, the costs of supporting Kiev; on the other hand, the reopening of trade relations with Russia could be beneficial for American capital.

Trump has clearly stated his intention not to spend additional American resources on a cause he considers marginal to the country’s interests. In his message on Truth, he harshly criticised Zelensky, calling him ‘a dictator’ and a ‘poor comedian’, and pointed out that the US, under Biden, spent $350 billion on an ‘unwinnable’ war, far more than Europe did. Trump’s message highlights how this war is more about Europe, stating that ‘the United States has a big ocean between them’.

Elon Musk’s activism on X also reveals further economic interests linked to the conflict. After conservative activist Charlie Kirk asked to examine the funds earmarked for Ukraine, Musk responded with a simple but eloquent: ‘OK’.

On the economic opportunity front, significant figures emerge. Kirill Dmitriev, the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, mentioned a potential of $320 billion in investments for American companies, envisaging new deals, especially in the energy sector and in regions such as the Arctic. However, as emphasised by the US State Department, any agreement will depend on the conclusion of the war.

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, confirmed that ‘the economic and geopolitical opportunities are incredible’, suggesting that business and finance are integral to Trump’s push for a new understanding with Putin.

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