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On 23 February Hezbollah will honour its former leader killed by Israel. The ceremony could become an occasion for new tensions, while the truce with Tel Aviv remains hanging by a thread

The truce between Israel and Hezbollah is little more than an illusion: weak, intermittent and always at risk of collapse. And 23 February could turn out to be a crucial date. On that day, the pro-Iranian Shiite movement announced the public funeral of Hassan Nasrallah, the former leader killed in an Israeli raid in Beirut on 27 September.

The decision was announced by the group’s new leader, Naim Qassem, explaining that the ceremony will take place after months of postponement for security reasons. The war between Hezbollah and Israel, in fact, continued until 27 November, making any large-scale celebration impossible.

But this event will not only be a time of mourning for Hezbollah supporters. With such a precarious balance, it is not excluded that Israel may take the opportunity to test the limits of the truce, perhaps with a new military sortie in Lebanon. Tension between the two sides is historically high, and Netanyahu may not look favourably on a commemoration that promises to be a show of strength by the Shia movement.

23 February, therefore, will be a day to watch out for: a funeral that could turn into yet another spark for a conflict that has never really been extinguished.

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