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Ukraine-Russia, the truce does not take off: the conflict is heading for a stalemate

The war between Ukraine and Russia continues with no concrete signs of a lasting truce. According to the Institute for the Study of War (Isw), the conflict is heading for a stalemate, with the front lines moving only marginally. A fragile ceasefire brokered by the US has limited attacks on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea, but fighting continues at the front lines.

In March 2025, Russian forces captured 240 km² in Ukraine, marking the fourth consecutive month of slowing advance. The peak had been reached in November 2024, with 725 km² gained. In parallel, Moscow almost completed the recapture of the Russian Kursk region, which had been partially lost in the Ukrainian offensive of August 2024. Kiev forces now control only 80 km², a tiny fraction compared to the 1,300 km² achieved at the peak of the advance.

From March 2024 to March 2025, Ukrainian troops recovered only 77 km², while the Russians gained 4,772 km², or 0.78% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and Donbass. This is a reversal of the previous period, when the Ukrainians had managed to regain more ground than the Russian forces.

The data, compiled by the Afp agency on the basis of ISW reports and satellite images, highlight a conflict that, although without any decisive breakthroughs, continues to wear down both contenders.

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