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Trump attack on Meloni may boost poll numbers, analysts say

Pollsters suggest the Italian prime minister could gain support after distancing herself from the US president

The Trump attack on Meloni may boost poll numbers, according to Italian analysts who see potential gains for the prime minister following her response.

Pollster and political scientist Renato Mannheimer said there are no firm data yet, but early indications suggest Giorgia Meloni could gain several percentage points, moving from 40% to 45%. He argued that previous ties with Donald Trump had weighed on her support, including during the justice referendum.

Mannheimer noted that some right-wing voters chose not to back the “yes” vote, partly out of frustration with Meloni’s stance toward the US president. He pointed to a shift in her positioning, including the Sigonella episode and her decision to distance herself from Trump’s remarks about the Pope. “Distancing herself from Trump certainly benefits her,” he said, adding that a cautious approach—maintaining the alliance with the United States while strengthening a European path—could further consolidate her support. Joining the European People’s Party, he suggested, might also help increase her popularity.

Pollster Fabrizio Masia described Meloni’s response as necessary. He cited Italy’s strong Catholic identity and the presence of the Vatican as key factors behind her stance. According to Masia, her position also received backing from opposition parties, reflecting a rare moment of institutional unity.

Masia added that trust in Trump among Italians is currently at historic lows, influenced by his positions on the Middle East, Iran, and his support for Benjamin Netanyahu. In this context, distancing herself from Trump helps prevent a weakening of Meloni’s standing, particularly among Catholic voters.

As for measurable gains in the polls, Masia said it is too early to make projections and that any assessment will require longer-term analysis.

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