Trump Venezuela: Risks of Military Action and Political Fallout

Experts warn that Trump Venezuela options could trigger instability and civil unrest in the country

The debate over Trump Venezuela intervention is heating up as the US president considers options to remove Nicolas Maduro. Experts warn that such a move could trigger serious political and military consequences, potentially destabilising the country rather than restoring order.

Military Risks and Power Struggles in Venezuela

Maduro maintains a careful balance among rival factions, blending civilian allies and military officers. Analysts argue that without him, the delicate equilibrium could collapse. Juan Gonzalez, a Georgetown Americas Institute researcher, explained: “Maduro is a moderate within Chavismo. If he is removed, someone else could seize power, potentially with military backing, not the opposition.” John Bolton, former US national security advisor, added: “If the army remains cohesive, it won’t crumble with Maduro’s removal. They would assert control and suppress protests.”

Opposition Challenges and US Support

Even if Maduro were ousted, the opposition lacks the infrastructure to fill the power vacuum. Edmundo Gonzalez, the 2024 opposition presidential candidate, proposed a “100-hour plan” for transferring authority, but experts insist it would fail without Trump Venezuela support. Key obstacles include rebuilding the army, unfreezing government funds, and securing law enforcement networks. Resistance from pro-government colectivos, Colombian ELN guerrillas, and criminal groups would complicate the scenario.

Domestic Political Concerns in the US

A Trump Venezuela military operation could also provoke backlash at home. Many Americans backed Trump to avoid costly foreign interventions. A Republican lawmaker noted: “Americans didn’t vote for Trump to drag the US into a prolonged Latin American conflict.” Elliott Abrams, former State Department official, warned that retreating now could undermine Trump’s “New Monroe Doctrine” vision.

In conclusion, Trump Venezuela decisions are fraught with risk. Experts emphasise that removing Maduro is only the beginning of a complex and dangerous process, where military loyalty, political alliances, and criminal networks intersect. The coming weeks will determine whether a US intervention leads to stability, chaos, or prolonged power struggles in Venezuela.

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