Migration and crime in Germany: Ifo study denies direct links

An analysis of crime statistics in Germany shows that an increase in the migrant population does not affect crime rates, particularly for refugees and foreigners

A recent study by the Ifo Institute, which analyzed crime statistics from 2018 to 2023 in Germany, refuted the idea that migration increases crime rates. According to the researchers, including Jean-Victor Alipour and Joop Adema, there is no correlation between increasing the share of foreigners in a district and local crime rates. The fact that foreigners are overrepresented in crime statistics relative to their share of the population is explained by factors such as the concentration of immigrants in metropolitan areas, where crime risk is already higher.

The study points out that the lack of correlation remains even when considering demographic factors, such as age and gender, which are more prevalent among migrants. In addition, violent crimes, including homicides and sexual assaults, show no connection with the increased presence of refugees or foreigners. Experts suggest that labor market integration policies could reduce crime among migrants and improve their economic participation while meeting the country’s labor needs.

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