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ECB president warns of the economic impact of any increase in tariffs between the US and Europe. Growth penalised especially in the first year, with long-term negative effects on production
According to analyses by the ECB, a 25 per cent US tariff on imports from Europe would have a negative impact on growth in the euro area, with a reduction of about 0.3 percentage points in the first year. This was stated by the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, during a hearing in the European Parliament.
Lagarde pointed out that a European response in the form of increased tariffs on imports from the US would further aggravate the situation, bringing the reduction in growth to about half a percentage point. However, she warned that these estimates are subject to high uncertainty as the situation is still evolving.
The greatest impact would occur in the first year after the introduction of the duties, with a gradual easing over time, while leaving a persistent negative effect on the level of output. The euro area, being deeply integrated in global supply chains and very open to trade, is particularly vulnerable to changes in trade policies, especially with the US.
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