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Statistics and experts’ hypotheses on the causes of the excess mortality at the start of the year
Paris – For 20 years, 3 January has been the day of the year with the highest number of deaths in France, with an average of 1,900 deaths compared to 1,600 for the rest of the period. This figure emerges from reports by France’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, raising questions among doctors and statisticians as to what causes such a spike. ‘No explanation has been confirmed, but the correlations are clear,’ cardiologist Vincent Pradeau told broadcaster Bfmtv.
There are several theories. One of the factors identified is the end of the Christmas holidays. ‘The desire to spend the festive season with loved ones and reach the New Year could delay the time of death in people who are already seriously ill,’ the institute analysed. In addition, the resumption of planned surgeries after the festive break could contribute to the medical complications that increase mortality during this period.
Holiday eating habits, characterised by higher consumption of fatty foods such as cold meats and cheeses, combined with the cold winter weather, put pressure on the cardiovascular system. ‘The cold forces the heart to pump harder, causing vasoconstriction and increased pressure,’ Pradeau explains. Alcohol, typical of celebrations, aggravates the situation, increasing the risk of atrial fibrillation and blood clots.
A further aspect to consider is the delay in seeking medical treatment. Many avoid going to the doctor so as not to spoil the holidays, a phenomenon defined by Pradeau as the ‘2 January syndrome’. This lack of timely checks and interventions can have a negative impact on health, especially for those who already have critical symptoms.
In contrast, 15 August is the least lethal day in France, with an average of 1,410 deaths. In general, holidays see a lower mortality rate due to the suspension of hospital operations. Christmas Day, for example, records -2% fewer deaths than neighbouring days.
Overall, the winter months – in particular December, January and February – see an increase in mortality of +9%, +14% and +12% respectively, partly due to the spread of seasonal viruses. The comparison between August and January 2024 is significant: while there were 48,100 deaths in the summer month, the number rose to 63,100 in January, an increase of 15,000 deaths.
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