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Published

12 mesi ago

12 Marzo 2025

Bre-news

Trump’s economic and trade policies are fueling uncertainty, with the possibility of a recession that could stop the current administration in its tracks

As Donald Trump’s detractors continue to question what could stop the U.S. president, one answer seems to be emerging more and more clearly: the economy. Recent fluctuations in financial markets and economists’ concerns suggest that the U.S. economy may be the real factor putting a damper on the current administration’s policies.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, shared a troubling analysis on his X profile regarding the economic consequences of the early months of Trump’s second term. Zandi expressed growing fears about a possible recession as early as next year, with the probability rising from 15 percent at the beginning of the year to 35 percent. “If Trump’s tariff policies are maintained for an extended period,” Zandi warned, ”the United States could enter a global trade war, with significant damage to the economy.”

Tariff increases and the risks associated with possible government budget cuts, along with uncertainty over the shutdown and debt ceiling, are increasingly weighing on economic growth. These factors, according to Zandi, could trigger a vicious cycle, exacerbating fiscal problems and curbing domestic consumption at a time when the U.S. economy appeared to be healthy.

An interesting comparison emerges from the optimistic forecasts Zandi made just a few months ago, when he called the U.S. economy one of the best in his more than 35-year career. However, the climate has changed rapidly, and the specter of a recession is becoming more and more concrete. Since January, the S&P 500 index has lost 6.4 percent, highlighting heavy losses for investors, including prominent names such as Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Sundar Pichai, who had initially supported the president.

Trump’s promise to cut taxes and massively deregulate the economy seems to have failed to have the desired effects. If the situation does not improve, the U.S. economy could be the main obstacle to his administration, a force that even Trump will not be able to control.

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