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Iran still a threat despite Trump claims, intelligence says

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U.S. intelligence assessments contradict the president’s narrative of a weakened Tehran.

“The Iran has been obliterated,” Donald Trump has said repeatedly in recent weeks. But U.S. intelligence assessments presented to Congress behind closed doors describe a markedly different reality: Tehran retains significant military capabilities and remains a credible threat.

According to reporting by The New York Times, Iran has restored operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime corridor through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. The sites, operated by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, are capable of threatening — and potentially striking — U.S. warships and commercial tankers transiting the area.

Only three missile installations along the strait are considered fully inaccessible. Intelligence estimates indicate Iran still possesses about 70% of its mobile launch platforms and roughly 70% of its overall missile arsenal. That stockpile includes ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets across the region, as well as a smaller number of cruise missiles designed for shorter-range land and naval strikes.

Satellite imagery and other surveillance data also suggest Iran has regained access to approximately 90% of its underground missile storage and launch facilities. These sites are now described as “partially or fully operational,” according to sources cited by the newspaper.

A gap between political claims and intelligence findings

The intelligence picture contrasts sharply with Trump’s public statements. As early as March 9 — ten days after the start of Operation Epic Fury — the president told CBS that Iran’s missile inventory had been reduced to “a few units” and that the country had “nothing left militarily.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed that assessment on April 8, saying during a Pentagon briefing that U.S. and Israeli strikes had “decimated” Iran’s military, rendering it ineffective for years to come.

U.S. stockpiles under pressure

While the administration has rejected suggestions that U.S. reserves are dangerously depleted, American media outlets describe a more complex logistical picture following the conflict.

General Dan Caine told a House subcommittee that the United States currently has “sufficient munitions for assigned missions,” even as concerns circulate about the pace of replenishment.

According to The New York Times, U.S. forces expended approximately 1,100 long-range stealth cruise missiles during the war — a figure close to the total remaining inventory. More than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles were also used, roughly ten times the number the Pentagon typically procures annually.

In addition, over 1,300 Patriot interceptor missiles were deployed, equivalent to about two years of production. Rebuilding those stockpiles is expected to take years. Lockheed Martin currently produces around 650 Patriot interceptors annually and has announced plans to increase output to 2,000 per year.

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