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Global Events and Trends to Keep an Eye on in 2025
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An analysis of the major global currents that will affect the world and our country, by Giorgio Rutelli of AdnKronos
What are the most important events and trends to keep an eye on in 2025? Here is a list divided by themes: (geo)politics, economics, defense, and technology, to intercept the major “global currents” that will directly affect Italy.
Canada
Justin Trudeau picks up the G7 baton from Giorgia Meloni. It will be a “light” G7 compared to the busy 2024 schedule: 8 ministerial meetings instead of 23 Italian ones. They will talk (again) about Ukraine, climate change and artificial intelligence. The meeting among leaders will be in June in the village of Kananaskis (population 156), amid the pristine nature of Alberta, which already hosted the summit in 2002. Canada’s prime minister is at the center of a political crisis, particularly after the very noisy farewell of his deputy and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. The next election is scheduled to be held on October 30, but even in his majority many are calling for an early resignation, and therefore ballot box. At the last Canadian G7 in 2018, Trump refused to sign the final communiqué, calling Trudeau “very dishonest and weak” after a clash over tariffs.
United States
On Jan. 20, Donald Trump will swear in the Bible for his second term as president of the United States. Starting at 12 p.m. Washington DC time, he will have full powers to field his agenda. Fun fact: The oath of office has been taken more than once by several presidents, not only because many have served two terms, but also because if January 20 falls on a Sunday, the president-elect swears in privately and then repeats the act at the “inauguration” on Capitol Hill the next day. This happened, for example, to Ronald Reagan in 1985.
Germany
Early elections will be held on February 23, after the end of the semaphore coalition that supported Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The country will go to the polls in a tense climate: the economy is struggling and the wound from the Magdeburg bombing is still fresh. The favorite is conservative CDU/CSU candidate Frederich Merz, but he will have to find someone to govern with, and it will not be an easy negotiation. Eyes are on the result of AfD, the far-right party that has done well in recent years especially in the former East Germany and will be able to count on the media support of Elon Musk.
Belarus
Presidential elections will be on January 26. Aleksander Lukashenko, in office since 1994, is aiming for a seventh term. After winning in 2020, he violently suppressed protests. He is Putin’s ally in the war in Ukraine, and Russia recently updated its nuclear doctrine promising to protect Minsk, including with atomic weapons, in case of aggression.
South Africa
The country will host the G20, a first for an African nation. Although President Cyril Ramaphosa considers Vladimir Putin “a valuable ally,” as he reiterated during their meeting at the BRICS summit in October, the country will not invite him to the meeting with the other 19 leaders because of the International Criminal Court arrest warrant hanging over the Russian leader’s head. South Africa is a signatory to the Rome Statute that established the Court.
France
In theory, there should be no elections, with Macron’s term expiring in 2027. In practice, starting in June, when the constitutionally mandated 12 months will have passed since the last dissolution of chambers, the French could return to a vote if the precarious Bayrou government falls under the blows of Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Europe
The two semesters of the presidency fall to Poland and then Denmark, and in the capitals some are breathing a sigh of relief after the six months with the unpredictable Viktor Orbán at the helm. The von der Leyen-bis commission has been in office for a month and has set priorities for this year: competitiveness, sustainability, defense, security, and digital technology. Relevant anniversaries include 30 years since the accession of Austria, Finland and Sweden, 40 years since Schengen (of which Romania and Bulgaria have been members since January 1) and 75 since the Schuman Declaration, named after the French foreign minister who on May 9 (not coincidentally Europe Day) 1950 proposed the idea of creating a Coal and Steel Community. The AI Act, one of the most important regulations in recent years, will have its first effects on businesses and citizens from February 2, with other important ‘steps’ on May 2 and August 2.
Ukraine
A good portion of international analysts predict some form of ceasefire during the year. Zelensky recently admitted that, with the forces currently in place, he is unable to recapture Donbass and Crimea. Trump has promised to resolve the war “in 24 hours.” Putin has declared himself ready to sit at a table, perhaps in the Slovakia of his “friend” Robert Fico. Both armies continue to fight hard for the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.
Middle East
If in late 2023 many would have given Netanyahu for finished, after the October 7 tragedy, the hostages, and the violent reaction on Gaza – adding to the street protests and accusations of corruption – today the situation is very different: Israel has brought Hezbollah to its knees, beheaded the Hamas leadership, and struck down the Houthis, isolating its number one enemy, Iran. With the fall of Assad, a further sign of the weakening of the Tehran-led axis, Netanyahu has gained a piece of territory that was under Syrian control. The situation in Gaza remains desperate, especially for those living in refugee camps, but if a vote were taken today Netanyahu’s Likud would be by far the leading party.
Japan
The Osaka Expo from April 13 to Oct. 13 will attract onlookers, companies and innovators. The theme: designing the society of the future. A living laboratory, “a place where the world’s knowledge will be brought together, used to create new ideas and shared to help solve humanity’s global problems.” The Italian pavilion, designed by architect Mario Cucinella, is a modern take on the Ideal City of the Renaissance with its theater, piazza and Italian-style garden. The theme, “Art Regenerates Life.” The centerpiece of the project will be a wooden Theater, immersive and multi-sensory: it will stage sounds, movements, colors.
Brazil
After the disappointing (for environmentalists) Baku, November 10-21 it will be Belém’s turn to host the 30th COP (Conference of the Parties) on climate change. The capital of the state of Pará was chosen for its being one of the main centers of the Amazon, a region symbolic of an environment to be defended, although it would be necessary to start with the city itself: only 2 percent of water is treated, with the rest being discharged into the rivers, generating high levels of pollution. A shortage of hotels will force many participants to sleep in cruise ships docked in the harbor.
United Kingdom
Local elections will be held on May 1 for the renewal of various local offices. On paper not a crucial date, but with the capacity to have a major impact on national politics. According to recent polls published by the ‘Sunday Times,’ if voted on today, Labour would lose about 200 of the seats it won only six months ago. The Conservatives, now led by Kemi Badenoch, the first black woman to lead one of Britain’s major parties, would grow. Reform UK, Nigel Farage’s party, would also show growth. Farage is back in the limelight after surviving plane crashes, leaving politics after the success of Brexit, and even reality shows in the Australian jungle.
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(Photo and source: © AndKronos)
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