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US and the third term: provocation or strategy? Trump would like to clash with Obama

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The US president sends out ambiguous signals, including suggestions, amendment proposals and alternative hypotheses to circumvent the 22nd Amendment

Donald Trump never stops fuelling the debate about the possibility of his third presidential term. ‘Me versus Barack Obama? That would be great,’ he said recently, hinting that if he were allowed to run again, the Democrats might even reintroduce the former president. In the meantime, while never openly confirming his intentions, he continues to throw stones and observe reactions.

During an interview with NBC News, Trump stressed that the idea is no joke and made vague references to possible ways to overcome the 22nd Amendment of the Constitution, which prohibits a president from being elected for more than two terms. The White House, through spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, played it down: ‘The president always responds with transparency and a smile. It’s not something he’s thinking about now, he still has four years ahead of him and a lot to do’.

According to the analysis of constitutional experts such as Kimberley Wehle, the 22nd Amendment leaves no room for interpretation: a new term for Trump would only be possible by amending the Constitution, a process that requires the approval of two-thirds of Congress and the ratification of three-quarters of the states, a scenario that is currently unrealistic.

However, the Republican Party is already moving some pawns. Congressman Andy Ogles has tabled an amendment to allow a president to run for a third time, as long as the two previous terms are not consecutive. A formula tailor-made for Trump, who has not held the presidency continuously. In response, Democrat Dan Goldman has proposed an opposite amendment, to reaffirm that the two-term limit applies even in the event of an interruption.

If the legislative path appears complicated, Trump could still try alternative routes. Former White House strategist Steve Bannon, during an event with young Republicans, has already launched the slogan ‘Trump “28?”, suggesting the possibility of a return to the polls after the current term. Another hypothesis circulating in Trumpian circles involves the candidacy of an ally as president – for example JD Vance – with Trump as vice-president. After victory, the president-elect could resign, thus allowing Trump to take back the White House without technically violating the 22nd Amendment.

Finally, the most direct and risky option: run for office anyway in 2028 and openly challenge the legal system. According to Politico, such a scenario would lead to a court battle that would end up before the Supreme Court, where Trump counts on a favourable majority among the judges.

Rather than a concrete possibility, a third term seems for now to be a political strategy to keep attention high and strengthen his leadership in the party. But with Trump, nothing can be ruled out.

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