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Analysts say Iran’s missile inventory could shape the course of the conflict and push toward negotiation

A single number could influence the outcome of the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. As the conflict enters its seventh day and the prospect of U.S. involvement looms, attention is turning to one critical question: how many missiles does Iran still possess?

Military analysts estimate that Iran has fired around 700 ballistic missiles at Israel over the past 14 months. But the exact number of medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) remaining in Tehran’s arsenal is unclear. CNN estimates Iran has between 300 and 1300 missiles left, a range that could significantly affect its strategic posture.

Israel claims to have destroyed about one-third of Iran’s launch infrastructure, potentially weakening Tehran’s offensive capabilities and nudging its leadership toward diplomacy. Meanwhile, Israel maintains air superiority and continues its strikes without signs of scaling back.

U.S. intelligence in 2023 suggested Iran had more than 3000 missiles, including 1000 to 2000 MRBMs capable of covering the 1400 km distance to Israeli territory.

According to Israel Defense Forces (IDF) data, Iran launched 120 missiles on April 13, 200 on October 1, and around 380 in the first five days of the current war—totaling about 700. If the original estimates hold, Iran may still have up to 1300 missiles left.

But Eyal Pinko, a former Israeli naval intelligence officer, offers a different view: “If they’ve launched 400–500 in a few days and Israel has struck storage facilities, they might now have 700–800.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed, without evidence, that Iran’s current missile production capacity is 300 per month. Pinko disagrees, arguing that Israeli airstrikes in 2024 have crippled Tehran’s missile system, particularly its booster assembly lines.

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