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The strengthening of Iranian forces in support of Assad raises fears of escalation in the region

Israel is watching with apprehension the recent developments in Syria, where Iran seems to be intensifying its military support for President Bashar al-Assad. According to sources quoted by Haaretz and other media, Tehran has reportedly started sending troops and resources to the country under the pretext of countering rebel groups involved in a new offensive.

Iranian influence in Syria

Iran considers Syria a crucial element of its geopolitical strategy in the region. The presence of Iranian advisers and militias is nothing new, as confirmed by Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei. However, the recent dispatch of militias from the Iraqi border and direct contacts between Assad and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian underline Tehran’s growing commitment to support Damascus.

At the same time, Syria continues to accuse the US and the West of fostering instability in the region, calling the rebels’ actions “terrorist”. In the context of a weakened regime, the risk of a collapse that could favour extremist groups is a scenario that alarms both Damascus and Tel Aviv.

Israel and regional security fears

Israel fears that Iran will exploit its role in Syria not only to support Assad but also to transport weapons and ammunition to Lebanon, strengthening Hezbollah. This fear comes against a backdrop of relative calm in southern Lebanon, where a truce between Israel and Hezbollah has been in place for five days after weeks of intense fighting.

Israeli forces continue to closely monitor the situation, as evidenced by the interception of an Iranian plane suspected of carrying weapons for Hezbollah. According to military sources quoted by the Times of Israel, Israeli attacks in Syria have already hit strategic infrastructure linked to Iran and pro-Iranian militias.

Russia and the international context

With Russia, Assad’s historical ally, increasingly involved in the war in Ukraine, Iran’s weight in protecting the Syrian regime grows further. However, Syria’s internal conflict has also weakened Hezbollah, already decimated by clashes with Israel and orphaned of its historical leader Hasan Nasrallah.

Future perspectives

The coming weeks will be decisive in understanding whether Iranian involvement in Syria will lead to an intensification of the regional conflict or whether it will paradoxically contribute to maintaining the truce with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel, for its part, is preparing to face various scenarios, including the risk of a collapse of the Assad regime that could turn the Syrian border areas into new hotbeds of extremism.

The evolution of the conflict between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah risks consolidating in Syria, a territory that remains at the centre of Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics.

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